Study: Looser gun laws correlated with increased firearm deaths

Concealed Carry

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The North Carolina General Assembly’s 2025 session is coming to a close with one gun law allowance that recently went to the governor’s desk, yet a recent study shows more permissive laws over the last decade are associated with an increase in firearm deaths of children and teenagers.  (Port City Daily/file photo)

NEW HANOVER COUNTY — The North Carolina General Assembly’s 2025 session is coming to a close with one gun law allowance that recently went to the governor’s desk, yet a recent study shows more permissive laws over the last decade are associated with an increase in firearm deaths of children and teenagers. 

READ MORE: ‘Guns galore’: WPD seizing more firearms as violent crime dips, property crime continues increase

In early June, Jama Pediatrics published a study analyzing the relationship between firearm deaths in people below age 18 and the rigidity of gun laws in each state. Since 2020, firearms have been the leading cause of adolescent death in the United States, surpassing motor vehicle accidents. 

Researchers from Yale New Haven Hospital, the University of California San Francisco School of Medicine and the schools of public health at University of Pittsburgh and Brown University analyzed firearm deaths before and after the 2010 Supreme Court ruling limiting state and local governments’ abilities to restrict gun ownership. 

After splitting states’ gun law approaches into most permissive, permissive and strict, the study found there were 6,029 excess firearm deaths in the most permissive group of states and 1,424 in the permissive group. Excess firearm deaths represent the amount of deaths that occurred over the expected amount in a period of time.

Nine states with the strictest gun laws did not see an increase in youth firearm deaths and four — California, Maryland, New York and Rhode Island — actually saw a significant decrease. 

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North Carolina was categorized in the most permissive group. From 1999 to 2010, the firearm crude death rate was 2.1; in the next decade, it rose to 2.8. 

John Commerford, executive director of the NRA Institute for Legislative Action, has called the study “political propaganda masquerading as scientific research.” PCD also reached out to the North Carolina Rifle and Pistol Association but did not receive a response.

Becky Ceartas, executive director of North Carolinians Against Gun Violence, didn’t find the results surprising. NCAGV is a nonpartisan nonprofit focused on education and advocacy for “common sense” gun laws. She compared gun laws to ones that regulate people driving cars, noting a license requirement and a proven record of safe operation is needed to  keep the privilege.

“A pre-pandemic survey in North Carolina found that one in three parents own a gun — not the problem — but one in four of those guns are unsecured,” Ceartas said in an interview with Port City Daily. 

She added North Carolinians Against Gun Violence endorse policies on safe storage — not only to prevent accidental firings but also youths from intentionally using the guns in violent encounters — universal background checks and proper training. 

“Instead of responding to important reports like this one and strengthening our gun safety laws, the leadership at the General Assembly is going in the absolutely wrong direction,” Ceartas said. 

The Jama Pediatrics study noted a “flurry” of laws passed in the wake of the 2010 Supreme Court case; in 2011, North Carolina began automatically recognizing any valid permit from out‑of‑state carry holders, no longer relying on reciprocity agreements. 

Additionally, what’s called the “Castle Doctrine” was updated in the state to allow for the use of deadly force against intruders in homes, vehicles, or workplaces without a duty to retreat. 

In 2012, the state started allowing the carry of firearms during declared emergencies, in line with the Bateman v. Perdue ruling that found the prohibition went against the Second Amendment.

Ceartas pointed to another major law change which occurred a few years later, when the General Assembly voted to allow concealed carry guns in bars, restaurants, and playgrounds in 2013. 

In 2015, the legislature passed a law prohibiting any city, county, municipality from enacting regulations on concealed handguns, though still allowing the posting of signs banning them from a premises. The stated goal was to ensure uniformity across the state and avoid confusion.

Though Republican lawmakers had been attempting it since 2017, the legislature passed Senate Bill 41 in 2023. It did away with the 100-year requirement for people to obtain a handgun permit, fit with a background check, from their local sheriff.

Ceartas called this move “incredibly devastating.” Though the state requires background checks for handgun purchases, the federal background check system only applies to federally licensed dealers. Guns sold from individual to individual, online or at gun shows often fall through the cracks. 

Before the permit repeal, Ceartas explained a handgun owner still needed to obtain a permit no matter where the gun was purchased, allowing for broader screening. She says the permit repeal led to the UNC Chapel Hill shooter on a student visa who opened fire on the campus in August 2023, killing professor Zijie Yan.

“His particular visa would have been flagged if he applied for a permit for the handgun,” Ceartas said, due to his status as an international student.

2024 brought with it more allowances for concealed carry, this time in churches and on school grounds, leading up to S.B. 50, introduced this year. Republican lawmakers sought to remove the permit requirement for concealed carry. 

The bill passed the legislature on June 11, but was vetoed by Gov. Josh Stein nine days later. House Speaker Destin Hall acknowledged the low probability of the legislature superseding the veto, noting not every Republican was on board the first time — including New Hanover County Rep. Ted Davis. PCD reached out to Davis for comment and will update upon response.

Ceartas commended the lawmakers “for putting public safety ahead of politics.”

“Make no mistake,” she said, “people and law enforcement ministers will die if this becomes law.” 

North Carolina would be the 30th state to allow permitless concealed carry if the bill were to become law.

“I don’t know about you, but I don’t teach my child to do what everyone else is doing just because they’re doing it,” Ceartas said. “If it’s dangerous, you don’t do it, you stand on your principles.” 

Ceartas pointed to West Virginia passing a permitless carry law in 2016; thereafter homicides increased 48%, she said. A 2023 study by the American Journal of Public Health, found handgun-specific deaths increased 48%, though overall firearm mortality increased 29%.

Port City Daily asked Ceartas what law changes she would suggest based on the states identified with no increase, or a decrease, in gun deaths per the study. Along with universal background checks and red flag laws — both implemented by the four states with the decreased gun deaths in the study — Ceartas noted enough funding for gun safety laws North Carolina has passed is also imperative. 

She pointed to former Gov. Roy Cooper’s NCSafe campaign for safe storage in 2023. 

“They’ve distributed over 100,000 gun locks, but their funding is in jeopardy, and the General Assembly needs to fund the important program,” Ceartas said, also pointing to community violence prevention programs as good public health approaches to reduce gun violence.


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