This is an updated version of a story that ran in March.

ALBANY — While Gov. Andrew Cuomo has not thrown in the towel on his future yet, it’s probably a safe bet to assume he will not be elected to a fourth term in 2022.

Despite the crescendo of calls for the New York governor to step down early, no Democrats have yet declared their intentions to run to succeed him. And there’s plenty of time for wild cards — perhaps a celebrity or billionaire will enter the primary and throw preexisting assumptions for a loop.

But here are some of the officials worth keeping an eye on as New York seems poised to rapidly transition from an impeachment trial to the commencement of a busy primary season:

Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul

Why she can win: Hochul has arguably worked harder at developing relations in every corner of the state than anybody else in New York politics in recent years. She’s constantly on the road speaking at ribbon-cuttings and charity galas, meaning plenty of folks who have never interacted with the other contenders already know her as somebody who is willing to spend time helping them out.

Assuming Cuomo leaves office, she’d suddenly have all the advantages of incumbency. Especially if an impeachment hearing drags on until the fall, Hochul could very well still be in the midst of her honeymoon when primary season kicks off in earnest early next year. When candidates are angling to find supporters next spring, there’s a plausible chance headlines will be dominated by whatever victories she might achieve in the legislative session.

And her ability to identify as the first female governor of New York certainly wouldn’t hurt.

Why she can’t win: Hochul has repeatedly said she views her current job as being a Cuomo booster. It’s not terribly hard for opponents to unearth hundreds of comments from her praising the governor’s leadership on issues like women’s rights that could make for some easy campaign ads.

And she was much more conservative earlier in her career. Hochul helped lead the opposition to then-Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s plan to grant driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants while she was serving as Erie County’s clerk in 2007, threatening to arrest applicants. She’s since said she supports that idea, but neither her past opposition nor her more recent work in a “lobbyist-type” job for a bank is likely to play well among the left wing of the party.

Attorney General Tish James

Why she can win: The past two elected governors came into the office after serving as AG — or “aspiring governor,” as the office is jokingly referred to in Albany. The only two open races for governor since 1982 were won by then-Attorney General Spitzer in 2006 and then-Attorney General Cuomo in 2010.

James certainly has the sort of resume that can win a gubernatorial race. Her battles against the Trump administration and NRA will play well in a primary, and her investigations into the Cuomo administration effectively undercut any attacks against her for being a one-time ally of the governor. And the latest investigation — the Tuesday report that corroborated allegations of sexual harassment made against the governor — could help find more supporters.

She’s also popular among many party leaders and prominent elected officials. Should she enter the race, it’s a safe bet that some rumored contenders would quickly bow out and endorse her.

Why she can’t win: James isn’t quite the shoo-in that her predecessors as attorney general were. In a March 2005 Siena poll, Spitzer outpolled then-Gov. George Pataki 53-30 and was viewed favorably by a margin of 50-18. A little over four years later, Attorney General Cuomo’s favorable numbers were 66-18.

James’ poll numbers have been good, but have not quite risen to the level where they’re guaranteed to scare away all challengers as Cuomo was able to in 2010. In a June Siena poll, she was viewed favorably by a margin of 34-21, essentially unchanged from the 35-17 she received in a poll conducted in January, a month before the Cuomo probes thrust her into the spotlight.

The attorney general has never put up eye-popping fundraising numbers, or shown an overwhelming degree of support outside of New York City, where she was previously its elected public advocate. It’s worth noting, however, that both of those factors were true when she ran in a four-way primary for attorney general in 2018, and she managed to win with 40 percent of the vote.

New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams

Why he can win: There are some elected officials whom progressives support because they vote the right way. But there are few they’re as passionate about as Williams, who has a long record of taking risks, such as standing up to Cuomo on budget issues even when other officials stand down.

He’s already shown he can be viable in a statewide race, receiving nearly 47 percent of the vote against Hochul in a 2018 primary challenge for lieutenant governor.

And for those looking for tea leaves as to whether Williams might have some interest in statewide issues, it’s worth noting that he recently embarked on a tour of upstate New York to discuss gun violence with various progressive Democrats.

Why he can’t win: Williams is the candidate most likely to set off warning sirens among establishment Democrats and business groups. If he finds himself in something like a rematch against Hochul, but in a race with much higher stakes than that for the lieutenant governor’s office, it’s a safe bet that super PACs will start spending unprecedented sums of money attacking him.

And while he’s far to the left on most issues, he isn’t in the progressive mainstream on some of the most important subjects to Democratic primary voters. Hochul put a lot of effort into attacking his position on topics such as abortion in 2018. While he says he supports the right to have an abortion, he’s also stated that he’s personally opposed to the idea.

Comptroller Tom DiNapoli

Why he can win: DiNapoli has a longstanding reputation as the nicest man in Albany, and he’s served in statewide office since 2007 without a whiff of a scandal. Those would obviously be great selling points if voters’ biggest takeaway from the ongoing crisis in Albany is that they should elect somebody who isn’t a bully.

He’s led the Democratic ticket in vote-getting in the past, with his 67 percent in 2018 outpolling Cuomo by a solid 7 points. And he’d be a strong contender to lock up the support of many of the state’s most politically powerful labor unions and party leaders in any potential primary battle.

Why he can’t win: Even if voters are repulsed by Cuomo’s behavior and want somebody nice, New York politics isn’t beanbag. It’s a safe bet that whoever wins a primary would need to show at least some willingness to engage in cutthroat politics.

And he’d have to end his career as comptroller by running for governor. That’s a job he seems happy to keep and one that most people would think is his for however long he wants it.

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone or Nassau County Executive Laura Curran

Why they can win: Both Long Island executives have a lot of things in common with the victors of most recent gubernatorial elections: They’re from the bellwether suburbs, they’re some of the best fundraisers in the state, and they’re not part of the far left wing of their party.

No county executive has ever been elected governor. But that’s likely a historical fluke, and it’s entirely possible that the resume line could be an asset if issues like managing a vaccination distribution are still at the forefront of voters’ minds.

Bellone in particular has never been shy in calling statewide attention to topics like his feud with a district attorney who was eventually arrested on corruption charges and his efforts to help Democrats win a majority in the state Senate.

“In politics, you never know what’s going to happen,” he said when asked in a 2019 television interview about whether he’d be interested in running for governor should Cuomo not seek a fourth term.

Why they can’t win: It’s an open question how far to the left the statewide electorate has moved. But it’s very possible they will not actually want a candidate who has a lot in common with recent gubernatorial victors.

The Long Island executives might face a particular problem if partisan identifications remain strong and Democratic voters impose litmus tests on contenders. Curran has opposed legalized marijuana and the state’s recent bail reforms. Bellone endorsed Mike Bloomberg in the recent presidential primary.

Members of Congress

Why they can win: There are numerous members of New York’s delegation in Washington, including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Antonio Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney, Kathleen Rice and Grace Meng, who would be taken seriously as gubernatorial candidates.

Rep. Tom Suozzi, who ran a longshot primary against Spitzer while serving as Nassau County executive in 2006, has notably been building his statewide profile since Cuomo’s troubles began.

Why they can’t win: Maloney ran for attorney general in 2018. But it’s rare for people with rising profiles in Washington to seek a return to the morass of state-level politics in New York — the last sitting member of Congress to run for governor was Hugh Carey in 1974.

State Senate Deputy Majority Leader Michael Gianaris

Why he can win: Gianaris has an existing statewide committee created for never-materialized attorney general campaigns in past years. He has $2.3 million in the bank, giving him a head start over others on this list — Hochul’s war chest has $1.7 million, and James has $1.6 million.

He’s been the manager of Senate Democrats’ redistricting plans for the past decade and also led their campaign arm, making it safe to assume he’s put more thought into subjects like how to win votes in suburban Syracuse than any other possible contender.

Why he can’t win: Gianaris was more responsible than anybody for scuttling Amazon’s HQ2 plans in Queens. That seems to have played well in his home borough of Queens, where concerns over issues like gentrification were at the top of voters’ minds. But in struggling Rust Belt cities, attacks that he’s directly responsible for the loss of 25,000 jobs could be unanswerable.

Gianaris also backed out of a 2018 primary against James, citing in part the need to have “women in positions of power.” That logic might make it unlikely he’d enter a race that could have an even deeper field of qualified women.

State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi or another state legislator

Why they can win: Democrats have an extremely deep bench in the state Legislature. Dozens of their 150 members are more viable than state Sen. George Pataki was 15 months before the 1994 election, when he beat incumbent Mario Cuomo, and it’s certainly possible that some unexpected rank-and-file member will launch a serious campaign.

The two legislators who are mentioned most often are Biaggi and state Sen. Jessica Ramos. Both are part of the young freshman class that helped their party take an operative majority in their chamber in 2018. And both would have a good chance at winning the support of the Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party. Biaggi has frequently given hints that she might have some interest — “Stay tuned!” she tweeted a couple of weeks ago in regards to the intent of a redesign of her campaign website.

One wild card: Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins. Nobody would have a better chance at clearing the room with a campaign declaration than Stewart-Cousins, whose tenure leading the historically factional Democratic conference has been met with rave reviews from moderates and socialists alike.

Why they can’t win: Pataki was able to win by latching onto then-Sen. Al D’Amato’s statewide campaign apparatus. There are some groups with a statewide presence with whom candidates like Biaggi or Ramos can ally — most prominently, the Working Families Party. But their major successes in recent years have come in legislative or congressional campaigns, and they’ve yet to prove they can be the decisive factor in a statewide race.

Candidates can, of course, build their own networks. But particularly for those who have minimal name recognition outside of a district that represents less than 2 percent of the state, that’s the type of organizing they would need to get started on very soon.

As for Stewart-Cousins, the biggest obstacle standing in her way is that she’s never given the slightest hint that she’s interested in statewide office.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio

Why he can win: His presidential campaign showed he’s willing to enter races even when few observers think he has a chance of victory, and entering a race is a key part of eventually winning it.

Why he can’t win: In his eighth year as mayor, the best polls for de Blasio show his popularity in New York City can rarely be characterized as anything better than lukewarm. Assuming that doesn’t drastically improve, he’d need a respectable showing upstate and in the suburbs to pull off a victory. And de Blasio’s name is so toxic in those parts of the state that several successful Republican campaigns have focused on simply highlighting the fact that their opponent is registered in the same party as the mayor.