Al-Ittihad, UAE, January 22

Every day, about 20 children and 300 adults are shot at by a firearm in the United States. Despite the fact that many of the shootings are accidental and non-fatal, the number of people killed daily by these weapons, about 106 Americans, is still high and shocking. These figures are unparalleled to any other developed country. Furthermore, the COVID-19 epidemic, the quarantines that came with it, and the consequent financial hardship it created, all contributed to an increase in domestic violence and the use of weapons in American society. Enduring arguments about gun culture in America frequently focus on US history and the vital role that access to guns played in the early settlers’ ability to tame a sprawling, unruly country and combat Native Americans who resisted efforts to seize their land and property rights. Then came the American Revolution and the role of armed militias in fighting the British. After victory and independence, the inherent right of American citizens to bear arms was enshrined in the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution. This amendment remains the cornerstone for those who stress that it allows them to purchase weapons and ammunition that includes the most advanced and deadly types of weapons on the market. Until recently, the strongest protests against lax gun laws emerged only after a violent or tragic mass shooting occurred at a high school, church, mosque or synagogue. However, after each of these incidents, efforts to pass more restrictive gun laws were thwarted by the strength of the gun manufacturers and the political lobbies that support them, especially the National Rifle Association (NRA). It’s true that the latter faced serious crises among its leadership due to problems of financial corruption, but this didn’t lead to the passing of stricter gun laws. What may finally change the national debate about guns in America, however, is the mounting evidence that the most serious threat to American democracy is the potential for well-armed groups to engage in violence against the institutions that maintain the basic structures of society. The rebellion and the storming of the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 served as a huge red flag. On that day, the rebels were not armed with military-grade weapons. Had they been armed with that, the outcome of the violence would have been very different. Fortunately, attacking the US Capitol in the future will be much more difficult, but other, less well-protected institutions across the US remain more fragile. Adding to the growing problems of civil violence, new waves of attacks against large retail stores erupted in large cities such as Los Angeles as a result of COVID closures and the consequent expansion of the cycle of poverty. These events spread fear among people in wealthy urban neighborhoods such as Beverly Hills, and led to a large appetite for gun purchases by citizens who were usually unarmed, but who now feared for their lives and property. The result: more and more weapons are now in the hands of American civilians. Perhaps the most disturbing of the many scenarios of civil violence is the one related to the 2024 presidential elections and the possibility that the results will be so contested that neither side will be willing to concede. Under these conditions, armed conflict on both sides remains possible, and this could lead to the outbreak of a new civil war. Some worry and fear that this will divide the military itself over what role it should play. If some groups within the armed forces decide to abandon neutrality and align themselves with a particular political party, the ability of the military command structure to control its forces could be called into question. This would be a disastrous outcome, tearing America apart for months, if not years, and would have wider consequences for the global political system. – Jeffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)