CALIFORNIA — The president of Mexico said this week that her U.S. counterpart agreed to curb the trafficking of U.S. firearms to her country.

President Donald Trump has neither confirmed nor denied the statement. What would it mean for California and the country if he implemented firearms provisions to appease Mexico? Would those efforts dent drug cartel violence, cut down on illegal drugs into the United States and slow the flow of migrants to the U.S.-Mexico border?

The Deal

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum took to social media Monday to comment on a 30-day pause on trade tariffs between her country and the United States.

“Mexico will reinforce the northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard immediately, to stop drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, in particular fentanyl. The United States commits to work to stop the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico,” Sheinbaum wrote.

Trump also posted Monday regarding the call with Sheinbaum, but he did not mention a weapons concession.

By Tuesday, media outlets were reporting that hundreds of Mexican soldiers were mobilized to the border with the United States as part of the pause agreement. Trump, however, was still mum on his alleged part of the deal.

Arms To Mexico

Trump and his Republican colleagues have shown little appetite for any firearms reform. Presumably, curbing the flow of guns to Mexico might require added investment in federal agencies like the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. The agency is under the umbrella of the U.S. Department of Justice and is currently besieged by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Congress could also take up gun reform legislation, though that’s generally unpalatable to Second Amendment advocates.

In 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. Among other things, the law created new criminal offenses for unlawful firearms trafficking and for straw-purchasing of firearms on behalf of prohibited persons.

According to the U.S. Department of Justice, two years into the law, there were 525 defendants in 280 cases who were charged under the legislation’s trafficking and straw purchasing provisions.

The cases included “significant prosecutions of firearms trafficking linked to transnational cartels and narcotics distribution,” the DOJ reported.

Mike Weddel, an ATF special agent in charge of the Houston office, told USA Today last year that some drug trafficking organizations south of the border pay top dollar for smuggled guns.

“My understanding is typically a firearm like an AR that retails for $1,000 here, by the time it winds up in Mexico it has doubled or tripled in value,” Weddel told USA Today. “It’s a vicious cycle. We’re consumers of narcotics and there’s an ongoing war in Mexico over the routes of those narcotics and that’s enforced with the use of firearms.”

At the time of the DOJ’s 2024 announcement, leaked data reported by USA Today laid out the case that the American gun industry profits from cartel violence in Mexico.

A May 22, 2024, USA Today article contends that despite efforts to stem the flow, tens of thousands of firearms from the U.S. “are smuggled south as part of the cycle of Latin-American narcotics headed north. The violence in Central America fueled, in part, by guns also has contributed to the migration crisis at the U.S. border.”

Alejandro Celorio, a legal adviser to Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told the news outlet, “I think the average American would be surprised that the fentanyl crisis is nurtured because of the number of firearms going to Mexico to empower the cartels.”

It’s a theme that continued this past weekend amid the tariffs frenzy. President Sheinbaumrejected an accusation by the United States that her government is an ally to drug cartels.

“If there is such an alliance anywhere, it is in the U.S. gun shops that sell high-powered weapons to these criminal groups,” she said.

California Rules

Efforts to crack down on weapons traffickers in the United States are ongoing but challenging. In 2024, a federal judge blocked the Biden administration from fully implementing a rule that would have required gun dealers nationwide to obtain licenses and conduct background checks when selling firearms at gun shows and online.

The Biden administration argued the rule would have affected more than 23,000 unlicensed dealers and tens of thousands of gun sales annually by closing the “gun show loophole.”

That loophole doesn’t quite exist in California, where firearms and ammunition sales and transfers must generally be conducted by or processed through licensed firearms dealers or ammunition vendors, whether or not they are conducted at a gun show.

California has adopted some of the nation’s most comprehensive laws, specifically governing gun show events, producers, dealers and vendors. Licensees are responsible for conducting background checks and ensuring compliance with other requirements.

Still, gun sellers can’t always spot straw buyers. If bad actors have clean records and meet all state and federal requirements, they can legally purchase firearms but sell them illegally.

California news outlets regularly report stories about illegal gun sales. In October, three Southern California men were arrested as part of a federal criminal complaint alleging they frequently made short trips to Utah to purchase more than 120 firearms there. They then illegally sold the weapons in the Golden State without a firearms-dealing license and repeatedly lied on federal forms while doing so, according to the DOJ.

Last month, a 24-year-old Los Angeles County man was sentenced to over 10 years in federal prison for armed robbery and the operation of an unlicensed firearm dealing business.

In 2021, a former San Diego County Sheriff’s Captain was sentenced after his years of illegal firearms transactions. The disgraced lawman admitted he had acted as an unlicensed firearms dealer, buying almost 150 weapons and re-selling almost 100 over a period of roughly six years. A number of those transactions involved straw purchases, according to the DOJ.

Some companies had sought to exploit legal loopholes in the definition of the word “firearm” to sell unfinished DIY gun build kits designed to circumvent California’s gun laws.

Laws have been passed to close loopholes. The weapons must be serialized and registered. (The phrase “ghost gun” refers to an unregistered, nonserialized firearm.) California now generally treats the sale, transfer and manufacture of completed and unfinished frames or receivers (defined as “firearm precursor parts”) the same way state law treats the sale, transfer and manufacture of fully assembled guns.

Uncertain Road Ahead

Giffords Law Center argues that Congress has a big task ahead if it wants to stop the flow of U.S. guns to violent drug cartels. The national nonprofit advocates to prevent gun violence and has published a list of action items. Top of the pack: expanded background checks and passing gun industry accountability laws to ensure irresponsible businesses are held accountable for actions that contribute to violence.

Additionally, Giffords calls for more transparency. Gun trace data is currently kept out of public view by a rider to a Congressional bill known as 2003’s “Tiahrt Amendments.” The rider ensures that data contained within the ATF’s National Tracing Center’s Firearm Tracing System is not disclosed to the public. Giffords wants that repealed.

As part of his 2024 campaign, Biden promised a Tiahrt repeal. Under the current president, a rollback is not expected.

If his 2024 campaign is any indication, firearms reform is not on Trump’s agenda. He promised attendees gathered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, for the National Rifle Association’s Great American Outdoor Show that if he got elected, “no one will lay a finger on your firearms.”